A lot of us here at Tom's Guide are rather excited to see the launch of the foldable iPhone Ultra later this year, since it's going to break all new ground for Apple's smartphones. But it sounds like we may have to wait a little longer for the phone to actually arrive, with analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicting that launch may follow the same pattern as the iPhone X.
For those that don't remember the launch of the 10th anniversary iPhone, let me remind you. The iPhone X was announced at Apple's September 2017 event, alongside the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus. But Apple didn't release them all at the same time, with the iPhone 8 series arriving on September 22 and the iPhone X releasing on November 3.
https://t.co/cH9jwDwlLlJuly 5, 2026
In the case of the iPhone X, Kuo notes that the delayed release was due to the fact "iPhone X inventory had not reached the level required for a September launch." The iPhone Ultra will likely be in a similar situation, especially since Kuo predicts Apple will ship between 0.5 and 1 million units in Q3 2026.
That's pretty low compared to the 7-8 million total units the analyst predicts Apple will produce, presumably for the next 12 months. It's also less than 10% of the reported ten million units Nikkei Asia said last week Apple was preparing to ship.
With all that in mind, Kuo believes the iPhone Ultra may not be available for pre-order until Q4 — and certainly won't be released in Q3.
iPhone Ultra wait times
Kuo's discussions with carriers and other phone sellers suggest that demand for the iPhone Ultra will be strong — even if the price is as high as $2,500. For that reason, he believes that the foldable may "sell out immediately", with delivery times hitting four to six weeks shortly after pre-orders open.
That said, long wait times tend to happen every year with certain iPhone models. Last year saw iPhone 17 Pro Max wait times hit several weeks, so it's no surprise that the iPhone Ultra might face the same issues.
Even if I'm unsure that Apple will be able to sell 10 million units with a $2,500 price tag, there's no doubt that there will be early demand for the phone. Kuo predicts scalpers could attempt to sell the Ultra for 50-100% above its official price tag in the short term. Considering how expensive the Ultra is rumored to be, the last thing you should be doing is paying even more when you may just need to wait a few weeks for stock levels to normalize
The question I have is whether that demand will continue as we arrive into 2027, and the rumored launch of the iPhone 18 closes in. According to Kuo we won't know just how popular the foldable iPhone will be until later on this year, or early next year. By then, early demand will have eased, and the supply of phones should have improved.
We still expect the iPhone Ultra to launch at the September Apple event, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. But any of you hoping to pick up the foldable may end up waiting a couple more months to get your hands on one. Just make sure you don't let the hype get the better of you, and make the foolish mistake of paying more than you need to.
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